Pelosi's Postponed Trip: A Blessing in Disguise
By Lo Ching-sheng
China Times, April 9, 2022
Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the United States House of Representatives who was scheduled to visit Taiwan on April 10 has suddenly announced that her visit has been postponed due to her positive test for the coronavirus (COVID-19). Whether the diagnosis is confirmed or not, there might be other factors involved. But if Pelosi was really not coming, it might be a blessing rather than a curse for Taiwan.
How come? The reason was Russia-Ukraine war should be a wake-up call to Taiwan. A few days ago, the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society held a seminar to discuss whether the United States and Japan would help defend Taiwan in the event of a mainland Chinese military attack on Taiwan. Most academics believed that the United States would prop up Taiwan with weapons and intelligence, while the possibility of their direct military interventions could be ruled out. Indeed, President Joe Biden refused to order troops into Ukraine on the grounds that "a war between the U.S. and Russia would amount to a world war." By the same token, Uncle Sam would not send its kids to Taiwan for defending this island democracy.
Although the United States did not send troops to the war in Ukraine, it did manage to consolidate the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and did reassert its position as a leader of western allies by rallying European nations to counterattack Russian military threats. By imposing unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia, the United States not only reduced its traditional enemy to a second-tier country, but also won European contracts for natural gas and the weapons. The war in Ukraine was a "civil war in Europe", and whatever its outcome, all European countries including Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France would suffer. At the same time, the potential threat to the U.S. dollar hegemony as opposed by an autonomous Europe and its currency the Euro would be incidentally eliminated. The United States really killed several birds with one stone.
The question was whether this successful experience would be taken up by the United States and become a blueprint for it to manipulate Taiwan issues. While "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" is Taiwan's major worry, "Russia today, China tomorrow" could be the American excitement of reining in the rise of China. Before the war, Biden repeatedly stressed that he would not deploy troops to Ukraine, which was criticized by some strategic observers as "tempting Russia to use force." Even if that was not a deliberate move by the United States, the temptation to replicate its successful experience could not be resisted.
Will the United States “lure China to use force against Taiwan”? The United States would not make its strategic intention public. As ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu said, "All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make the enemy believe we are near." But we have noticed that the United States is becoming more and more "friendly" to Taiwan, while more and more voices advocating for the recognition of Taiwan as an independent state. All this has touched the mainland’s raw nerve. For example, when Speaker Pelosi had been scheduled to visit Taiwan, China responded with four "serious" political statements. Furthermore, it was recently reported that the United States had been pressuring Taiwan to reinstate military conscription. We have to worry that some American strategists are trying to morph Taiwan into China's Ukraine, tempting the mainland to use force against this island republic first, and then imposing severe economic sanctions on China. The United States aims for removing the potential danger of China’s rise which would pose great challenge to American hegemony.
Taiwan has maintained cordial relationship with the United States and would highly welcome its "pro-Taiwan" approach. As a sovereign and independent state, Taiwan, the Republic of China, not only hopes to gain recognition from more countries and join the United Nations as well, but also strives for peace across the Taiwan Strait. May the scheme to "lure China to use force" is nothing more than either imagination or miscalculation of a few American strategists! The situation in Taiwan Strait should not tense up, and Speaker Pelosi's absence might be a blessing rather than a curse.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220409002015-262103